About the UK Trade and Business Commission

A Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous Trading Environment

The UK left the EU in January 2020 having signed the Trade & Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The TCA will be reviewed by both parties in 2026 - just a year from now. Running concurrently to this known event, are a series of significant but as yet unknown threats to trade across the world. 

Donald Trump will begin his second Presidential term next month, and may impose hefty tariffs on imports to the USA. China, and other members of the BRIC economies could retaliate. Wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and Sudan, plus conflicts elsewhere, not to mention climate change, risk further supply chain disruption and with it, inflation. 

Domestic political events across the world will also affect the appetite and perhaps even the ability of political leaders to negotiate changes to terms of trade with other countries and economic blocs. 

In such an environment, UK trade policy will of course seek opportunities but trade offs will have to be made. The UK Trade and Business Commission will help to navigate a path through, bringing fresh evidence and policy recommendations to boost UK GDP in aggregate, and focus on strengthening the trade of our nations and regions. 

This is why our Commissioners are drawn from every major sector of the economy, from all walks of political and diplomatic life, and have the experience and ambition to support a bold plan for trading our way to prosperity. They will take evidence, from small businesses and large, from trade experts and economists, from trade bodies and trade unions, to propose practical recommendations to the UK Government as they enter the TCA review, as well as making recommendations about existing and proposed trade deals with the rest of the world. 

The UK is becoming less trade intensive. In 2023 trade as a ratio of GDP fell almost 4 percent. New trade deals, signed since Brexit, have not replaced the lost trade with the European Union, which is unsurprising when trade declines with distance. The UK is home to innovative brands that want to trade more freely, with less friction and cost, and our work intends to build on their experiences and propose policy solutions to deliver growth. We will use secondary data and evidence from trade policy literature, as well as from reviews conducted by House of Commons and Lords Committees. Primary data will be collected from expert witnesses and stakeholder groups providing written or oral evidence to the Commission, and other evidence may be gathered through polls and focus groups.