New poll: Europe is public’s priority in face of Trump tariffs
A major new poll reveals twice as many voters think the Prime Minister should prioritise trade with the EU over trade with the USA.
Findings come as the influential UK Trade and Business Commission reconvenes ahead of decisive review of the Brexit deal against backdrop of Trump trade war.
More Brits think we share similar values with the EU compared to the US, and trust both the EU and Japan significantly more than the USA.
Crucially, voters who backed the Tories in 2019 but switched to Labour this year are even more emphatic in their support for closer EU ties compared to the general public.
As the UK faces new trade tariffs from President-elect Trump and prepares for the review of the Brexit deal, an important new poll shows that twice as many voters think the UK should prioritise increasing trade with the EU compared to those who favour the USA.
The large poll of over 4,000 people conducted by YouGov on behalf of Best for Britain shows that almost half of all voters (44%) think that Britain’s economic future lies with our closest neighbours in the EU compared to those who think the Government should prioritise trade with the USA (19%).
The analysis, which gauged public attitudes to international trade also examined how voters feel about the values and reliability of Britain’s global partners more generally, with about half saying they trust the EU (49%) but fewer than one in three saying they trust the US (30%). Indeed, more said they did not trust the USA (40%) and more respondents say they trust Japan (46%) than the US. Similarly, 66% said the EU shares similar values to the UK compared to 50% who said the same of the US.
In a blow to the last government’s Brexit pitch of increasing trade with the rapidly growing economies of the last decade, voters took an even less favourable view towards other nations including China, India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, none of which scored above 10% in terms of similar values or 12% in terms of trust. Of these nations, China scored highest as a trading priority but with only 3% of respondents saying the UK should prioritise increasing trade with China.
Crucially, voters who backed the Tories in 2019 but switched to Labour this year are just as emphatic in their support for closer EU ties compared to the general public which should give confidence to the Government that prioritising trade with the EU will help hold together their 2024 winning coalition. These voters are more likely to say the EU’s values are similar to the UK’s compared to the average Brit (72% to 66%), and in similar numbers say that they trust the EU (51% to 49%), and that improving trade with the EU should be the UK’s priority (48% to 44%).
The results are instructive as the incoming Trump administration looks set to increase tariffs on all imported goods and as the UK Government progresses its relationship reset with the European Union ahead of the review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in 2026.
Ahead of this decisive review, the influential UK Trade and Business Commission - which was the first to make notable policy proposals including; beneficial regulatory alignment, an EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme and reform of the UK Board of Trade - will reconvene.
From 2025 they will meet under the new leadership of new Chair Andrew Lewin MP, with support from Vice Chairs; former British official in the EU Commission, Sir Jonathan Faull, Virgin Group Chairman Peter Norris, Baroness Altmann, former British Ambassador to the US Lord Kim Darroch and Layla Moran MP, plus a team of expert commissioners from business, diplomacy, and parliament to provide original research and evidence-based solutions to the problems businesses face after Brexit.
Andrew Lewin, Labour MP and new Chair of the UK Trade and Business Commission said,
“This Parliament will be defined by our success in growing the economy and raising living standards. As we enter an increasingly volatile and uncertain global trading environment, it is vital for the UK to strengthen our ties with our biggest and closest trading partner, the European Union.
“It’s clear from this latest polling that public opinion has moved on from the binary Leave, Remain divide. Attitudes are shifting and people and businesses recognise that we need to rebuild relations with the EU to help our economy to succeed. All of this means the role of the UK Trade and Business Commission in putting forward pro-growth policy proposals will be more important than ever.”
Layla Moran, Liberal Democrat MP and Vice Chair of the UK Trade and Business Commission said,
“The UK Trade and Business Commission leads the way in forming evidence-based solutions to the problems created by Brexit, for musicians, scientists, farmers and countless others. The Government has promised a relationship reset and now is the time to put these ideas into action.”
Peter Norris, Chairman of Virgin Group and Vice Chair of the UK Trade and Business Commission said,
“The fastest way to reduce costs for businesses and consumers is not pursuing mythical free trade deals, it’s working with our European partners to remove the inflationary barriers of the Brexit agreement. Businesses have been clear that this is their priority, and this research shows it’s the public’s priority too.”
Lord Kim Darroch, Former British Ambassador to the USA and member of the UK Trade and Business Commission said,
“The US is an invaluable British ally but by definition, the Government cannot prioritise trade with both America and the EU, a strategy that risks delivering the worst of all worlds. Recent history suggests that Trump responds to strength and there is strength in numbers. We are better working with the incoming US administration in concert with our European allies.”
Sir Jonathan Faull, former British official in the European Commission and Vice Chair of the UK Trade and Business Commission said,
“Almost a decade on from the Brexit vote, global events should have made clear to us all that we cannot take our economic security for granted. We need urgently to improve our relationship with our neighbours in the EU. Growth and stability depend on it.”
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain said,
“Trump’s victory has made trust and values a relevant question in our dealings with the US and our polling shows that British voters find the most common ground with Europe and don’t trust Trump. They want to prioritise trade with our closest neighbours and the time is right for the UK Government to deliver.”
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 4,338 adults, of which 160 were Con19-Lab24 switchers. Fieldwork was undertaken between 25th - 27th November 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
The full findings of this survey are available to view on Best for Britain website.