UK-EU reset in the time of Trump: An Update on UK-EU Negotiations
Part of a series of monthly updates in which UK Trade and Business Commission Expert Adviser David Henig brings updates and analysis on the evolving trade relations between the UK and EU.
Slow moving trains
Recently there has been a discussion in the media as to whether UK or German trains are less punctual. This doesn’t say much for the state of the railways in either country, but it serves well as an analogy for the state of the UK-EU ‘reset’ in that both sides have been struggling to set out a vision that does justice to a shared desire to move on from Brexit towards a deeper relationship.
While the government’s positivity towards the EU has been received as a welcome change, the failure to move on from public messaging first used in 2022 has led many across Europe to think they lack the intent to follow through. This was particularly the case in the latter months of 2024 when repeated negative messaging about the EU’s desire for a youth mobility scheme caused real concerns among Member States.
Brussels institutions were not however immune from criticism. As the new Commission was forming it was clear that growth and security would be priorities, but there appeared to be no picture of how a strengthened relationship with the UK, its second most important partner in both of these matters, could contribute. Even some hitherto UK-critical voices found this something of a dereliction of duty.
A disruptive President
Into which enter a Trump sized problem which might mean that the UK is now the EU’s most significant partner. In the President’s threats over tariffs and cutting a deal with Russia on its terms the whole of Europe has been forced into emergency meetings and actions. Perhaps the US can return to its previous role as friend and guarantor, but right now the signs do not look good.
Or perhaps, to return to the previous analogy, the US President has in effect jammed half the signals on the already poorly performing train network, leaving officials scrambling to both get the trains running and stop the damage. At the very least this means that officials are heavily distracted away from improving UK-EU trade relations towards dealing with the fallout.
UK and EU minds could of course turn to the neighbourhood as a result of Trump, though equally the US President’s demonstrable desires to divide and rule could increase suspicion in a relationship only just recovering from several years of Brexit turmoil. At best this is going to provide a limited boost to London and Brussels, at worst it could encourage those on both sides who think the other is behaving unreasonably.
Timetables drawn
That HMG moved too slowly after the election is by now well recognised, but in the corridors of Whitehall there has been a noticeable uptick in activity. Most significant it seems that Cabinet has signed off UK policy positions towards the EU reset. First evidence of this came in the form of a story in The Times that the government could be open to the youth mobility that is a core ask of the EU and in particular Germany.
This however was something of an inevitability, since the UK could not credibly say no given existing schemes such as with Australia, even if details will need to be negotiated. Much more important is the question of alignment with EU rules, which recent modelling suggests could be worth 1-2% in GDP, a boost simply not available from any other policy tool. To an extent this will be required to meet the manifesto commitment of an SPS agreement, which also featured in the story, and there has been talk of making a wider ‘bold offer’ to the EU, though this is currently undefined.
Better personal relations will have allowed for some private briefing to the Commission about UK progress. This does in turn create an issue for the Commission who have been somewhat contrary on mutual recognition based on UK alignment with EU rules, suggesting with little basis this as the only way forward on SPS and unacceptable on other policy areas. In the corridors of Brussels they are probably preparing now in much the same way as the UK Government, but with the added complication of needing to seek a mandate from Member States (incidentally UK government consultation with devolved governments has been notably improved).
Constructive UK attitudes towards working with Europe over security should help moves things forward, but there is a lot more that needs to be done. In particular the UK needs to find a way to say more around Brussels to shape the debate. Stakeholders are now being encouraged to work with EU counterparts, a welcome change from pre-2024. Various intermediaries are also now working between officials on both sides to seek to reduce misunderstandings. In both cases however this will take time to come to fruition and be held back by Ministerial nervousness about saying too much whether because of rather exaggerated domestic or negotiating sensitivity.
The train departing on May 19
Not everything will be decided when Keir Starmer meets Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa on May 19 in the UK. This summit will however be a pivotal moment not least in shaping what can realistically be delivered in this Parliament.
Some in London have been sending out optimistic signals that major agreements can be reached at this point. This view is not currently shared in Brussels, where even a security deal is regarded as being fraught with difficulty. Notwithstanding anything else, the Commission needs that permission to enter into negotiations on trade matters with the UK.
Regular reporting on topics ranging from fish to the Pan-Euro-Med convention on rules of origin is all part of the negotiating noise, as the package to be agreed starts to take shape at the summit. That probably will include something substantive on security, and formal negotiations linking Emissions Trading Schemes should also commence given severe time pressure in this area. In other areas it seems likely that both sides will enter a more intense scoping phase. Importantly all of this will need to be balanced between UK and EU asks.
Suggest such an outcome to UK officials, and they will say this is the least of their hopes. On the other hand, EU officials will suggest this is the limit of their ambitions. So a reasonable balance exists, perhaps.
What overwhelmingly supportive UK stakeholders need to be doing is keep applying the pressure in both London and Brussels. For there are plenty of green signals, but also a few warning signs that this will continue to be a challenging process.